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Wage and salary employment in the Federal Government is projected to grow by 3 percent through the year 2012, while the salaried economy as a whole is expected to grow by 16 percent. Job growth generated by increased homeland security needs may be largely offset by projected slow growth or declines in other Federal sectors due to governmental cost-cutting, the growing use of private contractors, and continuing devolution—the practice of turning over the development, implementation, and management of some programs of the Federal Government to State and local governments.
Because of its public nature, the factors that influence Federal Government staffing levels are unique. The Congress and President determine the Government’s payroll budget prior to each fiscal year, which runs from October 1 through September 30. Changes in public policy priorities can result in increasing levels of Federal employment in some programs and declines in others. For example, Department of Defense civilian employment, which accounts for about 35 percent of Federal civilian employment, has been on the decline in recent years. Although this decline is expected to level off over the next decade, the emphasis on reduced government payrolls will lead to decreases in employment in many other agencies.
The attacks of September 11, 2001, spurred the creation of DHS and major reorganization of several executive departments, offices, and agencies. Demand will continue to grow for specialized workers in areas related to border and transportation security, emergency preparedness, public health, and information analysis. The employment implications of changing Federal priorities remain uncertain, but a portion of employment gains could be offset by reductions due to overlapping functions of various Federal agencies.
Any employment declines generally will be carried out through attrition—simply not replacing workers who retire or leave the Federal Government for other reasons. Layoffs, called “reductions in force,” have occurred in the past, but they are uncommon and usually affect relatively few workers. In spite of attrition, there still will be numerous employment opportunities in many agencies due to the need to replace workers who leave the workforce, retire, or accept employment elsewhere. The proportion of the federal civilian workforce eligible for retirement has increased significantly over the last decade with the aging of the federal workforce.
Competition is expected for some Federal positions, especially during times of economic uncertainty, when workers seek the stability of Federal employment. In general, Federal employment is considered to be relatively stable because it is not affected by cyclical fluctuations in the economy, as are employment levels in many construction, manufacturing, and other private sector industries.
The distribution of Federal employment will continue to shift toward a higher proportion of professional, business operations, and protective service workers, as employment declines will be most rapid in administrative support and production occupations. Employment of office and administrative support workers in the Federal Government will be adversely affected by office automation. Employment among production occupations is expected to decline as many of their functions are contracted out to private companies.
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